These CEOs are leading with conviction, despite the conflicting signals.

At our recent CEO Roundtable in Melbourne, I convened a group of CEOs and senior executives for a candid discussion under Chatham House Rules on the theme: Leading with Conviction: Setting Direction when the Signals Conflict.

While the discussion was grounded in Australian market conditions, the leadership challenge is not uniquely Australian. CEOs globally are being asked to interpret conflicting signals, make disciplined choices and mobilise their organisations before certainty arrives.

The current operating environment is not uniformly weak, nor comfortably strong. Energy and other input cost volatility remain live considerations. State-based conditions vary. Capital is still being deployed, but more selectively. AI is moving from experimentation to practical use cases. Leadership teams are being tested by the pace and complexity of change.

In short, CEOs are not dealing with one clear signal. They are navigating several at once.

What made the discussion valuable was its practicality. The conversation moved quickly beyond market commentary and into the real decisions leaders are making now: where to invest, where to simplify, how to approach AI and whether leadership teams have the adaptability required for the next phase.

Uncertainty is not stopping decisions, but it is changing the threshold for action

The clearest shared signal was business is experiencing uncertainty, but not paralysis.

Customers and businesses still want to move forward. Growth, resilience and productivity initiatives remain active. The difference is that timing, confidence and capital commitment are being judged more carefully.

The discussion also reinforced how uneven market conditions have become. Victoria was described as softer, while Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia were referenced as comparatively stronger. For national organisations, this warrants close attention: broad averages can obscure the state, sector and customer signals that matter most.

Scale is also creating separation. Larger organisations appear better able to absorb volatility and continue investing, while smaller B2B customers and more constrained operators are feeling pressure earlier. That stress may appear first in the customer, supplier or distributor base before it becomes visible in broader financial performance.

The emerging view was clear: leaders are placing greater weight on operational signals. Customer behaviour, order flow, margin pressure, supplier behaviour and frontline confidence are becoming more useful than broad market sentiment.

“The signals that warrant the most attention are those directly connected to the customer.”

Growth is still active, but more disciplined.

Growth remains on the agenda, but the strategy has changed.

This was not a discussion about retreat. Leaders are still pursuing opportunity. However, capital, management attention and organisational energy are being deployed with greater discipline.

One useful distinction was the difference between ownership models. Listed corporates, private equity backed businesses and family office environments are approaching growth, risk and decision speed differently.

Listed corporates are under pressure to demonstrate sharper portfolio logic. In some cases, divestment and simplification are becoming as important as acquisition. Growth is not only about adding more. It can also mean releasing capital, exiting non-core assets and focusing effort where conviction is highest. Private equity remains active, but more selective. Longer hold periods, liquidity pressure and disciplined value creation expectations are changing investment decisions. Family office capital, by contrast, may offer agility, patience and fewer decision layers.

Across these contexts, one theme stood out: stick to the knitting.

The strongest investment logic was not always the boldest acquisition. In many cases, the better answer was to invest in core capability, sales effectiveness, people, systems and infrastructure.

In a more selective market, the growth question is no longer only “What could we pursue?” It is also “What should we choose not to pursue?”

“Disciplined growth in this market involves knowing what not to pursue.”

AI should release capacity to drive growth

AI was a recurring theme, but the discussion was notably practical.

The room did not dwell on AI as a concept. The focus was on where specific use cases can improve productivity, reshape workflows and release capacity to drive growth.

Too often, AI is framed narrowly as a cost reduction tool. The more strategic opportunity may be different. AI creates value when it releases people from lower-value activity and redirects capacity towards growth, customer development, better decision-making and higher-impact work.

For many organisations, the question is not simply whether AI can reduce headcount. The better question is whether it can help redeploy capability more intelligently.

There was also a pragmatic discussion around how to build AI capability. Not every organisation needs to appoint a permanent AI leader immediately. For some, the right approach may be to test specific use cases, work with specialist partners or bring in interim expertise before committing to permanent structures.

AI adoption is not only a technology decision. It’s also an operating model decision. It affects workflows, roles, talent requirements, governance and the way future leaders develop judgement.

“If AI releases capacity, is it being used to drive growth?”

Leadership adaptability is the real constraint

The final and most important theme was leadership capacity.

Current conditions are exposing gaps that may have been hidden during more stable periods. Several leaders reflected that the velocity of change is testing teams, processes and decision patterns. Organisations that have not invested in leadership development, succession depth and adaptive capability are now being caught out.

One idea captured the discussion particularly well: the leadership question is shifting from “Can they do the job?” to “Can they evolve with the changing demands of the role, the organisation and the market?”

In stable conditions, performance in role may be enough. In more volatile conditions, leaders need to adapt as the context changes. They need judgement, emotional intelligence, communication discipline, commercial clarity and the ability to bring people with them when the path forward is uncertain.

Organisations need to define the specific leadership competencies required for each critical role.

In the context of strategy, operating environment and the cultural realities of the business, generic leadership attributes are no longer sufficient. The capabilities required to lead growth, transformation, cost discipline, AI adoption or succession are not interchangeable. Boards and CEOs need to be precise about what each critical role now demands.

Role requirements are also changing faster than traditional job descriptions. Middle management and succession pipelines are under pressure as roles become more technology enabled, more growth oriented and less defined by historical structures.

Command and control leadership was also challenged. In fast-moving environments, decisions need to be pushed closer to the business. Leaders need to empower teams to act and prevent people from “jumping at shadows” when signals are unclear.

AI adds another layer. If technology removes some of the formative work through which younger professionals have traditionally built judgement, organisations will need to rethink how future leaders learn. Technical capability, commercial judgement and leadership confidence will still need to be built, but the pathways may need to change.

“Capability gaps appear quickly when the market moves faster than the team.”

Looking ahead: conviction is not the same as certainty

The message from the Roundtable was clear. In the current environment, conviction is disciplined judgement. It’s the ability to decide which signals matter, where to invest, where to simplify and how to lead when the data is incomplete. The leaders gaining ground are not waiting for clearer signals. They are becoming more selective about the signals they trust and more deliberate about the capabilities they build.

For Boards and executive teams, this raises several practical questions:

• What capability do we genuinely have?
• Where are roles changing faster than the people currently in them?
• Are our succession plans still realistic?
• Have we defined the leadership competencies required for our most critical roles?
• Are we using AI to reduce activity or release capacity to drive growth?
• Do we have the leadership adaptability required for the next phase?

Increasingly, organisations are not only asking who should lead, but whether they have the leadership depth, adaptability and cultural alignment required for what comes next. As the market continues to evolve, leadership capacity will remain central to performance. Strategy matters, but the ability to interpret signals, mobilise people and act with disciplined conviction may prove to be the real differentiator.

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Through TRANSEARCH Australia’s CEO Roundtable series, I convene senior leaders each quarter to explore the issues shaping Board and executive decision-making. These conversations are intentionally curated, confidential and peer led. Their value lies in the candour of the room and the quality of the perspectives shared. They also reflect the work we do every day with Boards, CEOs and executive teams: executive search, market intelligence, leadership assessment, succession, human due diligence, board capability and broader talent advisory.

Please get in touch with me if you would like to participate in future CEO Roundtables or if I can assist you and your organisation with any of the themes presented in this article.